Electrifying the GCC: Navigating the Challenges of EV Infrastructure Planning

Electric cars appeared in the late 19th century, and remained popular until advances in internal combustion engine cars and cheaper mass production of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles pushed them out of the market. The electric car has been making a comeback for the past 10 to 15 years by efforts to align with green mobility ambitions and reduce the reliance on fossil fuels.

One of the regions that is embracing the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).  Recent reports reveal that EVs constituted over 1% of the UAE's car market in May 2023¹, placing it 8th globally in terms of electric mobility readiness ². In Saudi Arabia, the government's commitment to purchase thousands of electric vehicles over the next decade, and Riyadh's goal to have EVs account for 30% of its vehicle fleet by 2030, highlight the country's dedication to this shift³.

However, the surging demand for EVs in the GCC is accompanied by formidable challenges in planning the required infrastructure. These challenges encompass issues such as predicting vehicle utilisation, ensuring adequate power supply, and catering to the region's unique cultural and social characteristics. In addition, with the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) challenges associated with EVs, a broader approach is required to meet the aspirations of GCC nations in creating more vibrant and sustainable cities.

At the forefront of these challenges is the unpredictability of EV usage, particularly in large-scale greenfield projects. Unlike traditional public transport, shared electric mobility and individual car usage lack extensive historical data, making it difficult to plan effectively for fleet and charging infrastructure.

Further complicating this issue is the scarcity of regional data on EV charger utilisation. While benchmarks set in Europe provide some guidance, they may not fully align with the GCC's unique parking culture and urban characteristics. Additionally, the relative affordability of petrol in the GCC, coupled with the lack of incentives for EV purchases, presents a stark contrast to other regions and adds to the risk of planning with sole reliance on international benchmarks.

As highlighted by the Gartner Hype Cycle, enthusiasm for the new technologies associated with EVs may considerably fluctuate until the industry reaches a point where the actual demand is identified. Hence, caution is advised to avoid overestimating demand and creating unnecessary infrastructure. Caution is especially pertinent in estimating power demand, given the high requirements of EV chargers, particularly fast chargers. This consideration is crucial in the sizing of power substations, where initial power requirements should be accommodated from the outset. 

The Gartner Hype Cycle

In response to these challenges, WSP has adopted a dual approach to e-mobility projects, encompassing both greenfield masterplan projects and developments within existing cities.

For greenfield projects, such as those under the Saudi Public Investment Fund’s umbrella, the reliance on a shared fleet of electric vehicles necessitates a planning approach similar to that used for electric public transport systems. This involves calculating the required number and type of chargers based on anticipated vehicle usage levels. Consideration of the 'downtime' of charging is also crucial, requiring infrastructure at both depots and en route to ensure smooth operations. Catering to a variety of users and journey types, including staff travel, taxi services, public transit, private vehicles, and service vehicles, is essential for the accuracy of this planning approach.

In contrast, our approach for existing urban areas takes into account personal mobility (cars, e-bikes) and public transport. This involves examining key factors affecting usage predictability, such as identifying current and future EV users, determining the level of service we are willing to provide to EV users, assessing the capacity and scalability of power substations, and understanding travel patterns and charging behaviors. We also leverage the gradual accumulation of regional data while incorporating ongoing feedback to refine our predictions and improve our ability to accurately forecast EV infrastructure needs.

EV adoption alone is not sufficient to achieve the goals of sustainability and livability in the GCC region. Realising these aspirations necessitates a comprehensive planning strategy that transcends the focus on EVs and considers the environmental, social and governance (ESG) challenges associated with electric cars including for example the ethical and ecological implications of mineral extraction and processing for EV batteries, the need for a resilient and clean power grid to support EV charging.

The aspirations of several countries in the GCC to build more vibrant and sustainable cities can only be enabled by significant investments in public transport networks, diverse land uses, expansive public realms, green spaces, and micro-mobility infrastructure as well as understanding the travel behaviour of very diverse populations. Such a holistic approach promotes a broader shift in urban mobility, reducing car trips, and leading to a more sustainable urban environment.

Whilst the challenges of developing EV infrastructure in the GCC are considerable, they are by no means impossible to overcome. These challenges encompass predicting vehicle utilization and infrastructure demand, ensuring adequate power supply, and catering to the region's unique characteristics. Our WSP approach to address these issues leverages meticulous planning, data-driven strategies, and holistic urban development.

The GCC is well-positioned to successfully navigate the transition to more sustainable transport solutions but a more comprehensive approach is still required to meet the current aspirations in the region for efficient and clean transport.