Climate change is unfolding on a complex and historically uneven backdrop, generated by a legacy of planning practices, policies and disinvestment. As a result, climate change is affecting people differently and low-income and minority communities are already bearing a disproportionate financial and emotional impact.

Some people are paying higher electricity bills caused by more frequent and hotter extreme heat events, which in some communities is made worse by minimal tree canopy. Others are contending with whether they can afford to live in their communities, or if they must find a new place to live. For many frontline communities, this is not a new phenomenon as climate change is compounding histories of displacement and existing inequities.

Coastal communities in Florida are grappling with these challenges in real-time. Historically, wealthier populations have owned highly desirable waterfront properties and lower income populations have lived on the “less desirable” land inland and at higher elevation from the coast. Waterfront properties are now experiencing an increased risk of flooding due to sea level rise, storm surge, heavier precipitation and stronger hurricane force winds during landfall.

In response, some coastal property owners invest in higher seawalls; others rely on flood insurance with higher premiums to be able to stay in place. Others choose to move to higher elevation properties further inland to minimize their risk of flooding. Increased demand for higher elevation properties directly impacts the property values in these areas, which were historically occupied by low-income residents.

As wealthier residents move in, existing residents are priced out and cannot afford to live in their communities any longer. The impacted communities are dealing with housing affordability and also experiencing loss of community identity and cultural disruption. This ripple effect is called “climate gentrification.”

Gentrification is not new, but gentrification due to climate change is an emerging form of the problem and one likely to grow as the climate crisis accelerates. Globally, more than 30 million people were displaced in 2020, the majority (98 percent) due to weather and climate hazards.

The number does not include those who proactively choose to move to an area of lower climate risk. Fueled by the intensity of climate impacts and recognition that the climate crisis is on track to worsen, a growing number of people who can afford to relocate are seeking alternatives.

For example, Liberty City, Florida is just four miles away from downtown Miami and about three meters higher in elevation than downtown, which is at sea level. It is home to a predominantly African-American community who are also low-income and was a historically redlined area.

Liberty City is experiencing an influx of wealthy Miami investors and homeowners eager to invest in areas with less risk of flooding. In the past decade alone, the increase in land and home values have tripled the cost of single-family homes, and the cost of renting. This trend has exacerbated Miami-Dade County’s affordable housing crisis.

The story of climate gentrification is not just about moving. Essential projects designed to promote resilience and climate adaptation can also contribute to gentrification.  People who study these trends worry about the possibility that climate adaptation investments will themselves increase property values and contribute to gentrification.

There’s no doubt climate change is reshaping our communities, cities and the country. The question is, can climate adaptation deliver justice for the communities that are disproportionality impacted and have contributed the least to the problem?

It is not only necessary, but possible to minimize the harmful effects of climate gentrification. To find solutions, professionals can start by reflecting on past efforts and adopting a different lens that prioritizes human wellbeing and shifts focus beyond the areas of high physical risk that tend to capture our attention, like downtown Miami.

First, people and communities should lead climate adaptation efforts. Professionals should actively work to build community partnerships rooted in listening. Communities that have done the least to contribute to climate change are often most at risk of its impacts. So they must have ownership of the decision-making process.

Also, professionals should reflect on how studies inherently privilege certain types of knowledge and notions of progress over others, which narrows the possibilities of climate adaptation. Further, mainstream best practices and assessments run the risk of reinforcing existing inequities rather than challenging them. Contextualizing decision-making in these histories can build a more complete picture of the factors contributing to climate gentrification, hopefully yielding better outcomes for the at-risk community.

In addition, climate gentrification prompts professionals to ask different questions. Climate adaptation planning can often feel like running through quicksand — you’re constantly sinking into one consideration after another, often unable to see the full picture.

However, it’s important that climate adaptation professionals be able to hold short-term and long-term — and physical and social — factors in their heads at the same time. Climate adaptation planning can benefit from different questions that unpack the dynamics between these factors and also consider the social impacts of climate adaptation investments themselves.

Ultimately, adopting a different lens may warrant professionals to consider new solutions outside of the traditional toolbox. For example, one emerging solution is community-led resettlement (often also referred to as “managed retreat”), which means the relocation of people or infrastructure. It’s a possible strategy to reduce climate-related risk and if done well can promote equity both by helping residents relocate out of harm’s way and by mitigating the negative impacts of climate gentrification on receiving communities.

WSP’s climate resilience team has been working to apply these principles and has forged ahead into these challenging topics. The team recently developed a methodology for and conducted a preliminary future gentrification risk analysis in Escambia County, Florida. This study was conducted as part of the Jackson Street corridor improvements master plan.

Jackson Street corridor is at a significantly higher elevation than the surrounding coastal areas of the county. The corridor’s elevation, its predominantly minority and low-income community, combined with potential infrastructure investment were indicators of gentrification risk that prompted us to evaluate further. The gentrification risk analysis included considerations for both market-induced and climate-induced gentrification risk.

There is no available methodology in the planning professional practice to study gentrification risk. So, the team developed a hypothesis of factors that may impact displacement of vulnerable communities. The project team used both qualitative and quantitative analyses to frame the challenge, including leaning on public meetings and site visits to understand the character and culture of the community.

The results of the analysis helped identify the section of the corridor at high risk of future gentrification. Using the information, the team developed countermeasures that ensure housing affordability both remain in-place and allow future generations to stay in place and retain the community identity. The questions that arose during this work challenged us and led us to develop recommendations that were outside of our traditional area of expertise.

This study was a starting point on our climate equity journey. More can be done to improve upon this approach and to adopt the principles we aspire to meet. We will continue to strive to improve our work and challenge our assumptions because we believe that by addressing climate risk with care, innovation and a collaborative creativity, we can prepare for a future that will look and feel substantially different from the world we live in today.

UN Climate Change Conference (Nov. 6-18)

WSP is all in for the United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP27) this year in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The firm’s delegation is working in close collaboration with the UN Climate Champions team and numerous partners, including the International Coalition for Sustainable Infrastructure, Resilience Rising, Resilience First, the Coalition for Climate Resilient Investment and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.

WSP is helping shape the discourse and presenting on a wide range of topics — the future of funding the net-zero transition, realizing infrastructure’s resilience dividend, mainstreaming nature-based solutions and integrating green infrastructure into grey — and supporting the Resilience Breakthroughs implementation labs across the spectrum of impact systems: food & agriculture, water & nature, human settlements, oceans and infrastructure.

Learn more about how WSP is activating its engagement at COP27, hybrid events you can register to attend, and the distinct suite of capabilities that make WSP a leader in climate, resilience & sustainability: https://www.wsp.com/en-us/campaigns/cop27

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