New Climate Report Navigates Climate Change’s Uncertain Impacts

Most people face and overcome uncertainty on a daily basis. But climate uncertainty seems to be particularly nebulous, which is why research and modeling is crucial to better understanding the potential outcomes of this change.

“It's not climate change itself that’s uncertain — it’s the degree to which the climate will change that’s uncertain,” said Dr. Susan Kemball-Cook, vice president, who leads the WSP Sustainability, Energy and Climate Change climate risk team. “Our mission is to help clients understand the range of possible futures, and to help them prepare for the changes that lie ahead.”

This is also what drives the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), which provides expert assessments on the state of climate science, with a specific focus on the greater New York region. The NPCC’s recently published 4th assessment report provides information on hazards facing the region, including rising temperatures, precipitation, sea level rise, extreme flooding events, and hot and cold weather extremes.

Dr. Maya Buchanan, an assistant vice president, climate scientist, and adaptation expert with WSP’s climate risk team, served as a contributing author to the NPCC’s 4th assessment report. Buchanan was also a contributing author for the NPCC’s previous report published in 2019.

“This equity-centered report provides updated climate science information that can be used by city agencies, diverse organizations, communities and companies to better understand emerging hazards that can affect everyday aspects of our society,” Buchanan said. “This information can help users from many different sectors navigate the inherent uncertainty of modeling dynamic climate systems and help equip them to integrate equity into planning.”

The research and modeling used in developing the report can be crucial for cities actively working to increase their resilience to climate stressors and for companies that must adapt in the wake of the Security and Exchange Commission’s rule on climate-related disclosures. The rule requires companies listed on the U.S. Stock Exchange to provide more detailed reports, including information about climate-related risks that may have a material impact on their business.

Climate change related hazards can block access to critical services, alter operating conditions and design criteria of critical assets, and displace communities. A goal of the NPCC report is to help users understand the range of potential future conditions that can lead to various impacts. The NPCC and its reports serve as a model for helping local entities shift their planning perspectives.

The question now is, how can agencies, organizations, companies and communities work with that uncertainty to reliably protect people and keep a city running?

“Adaptation is about planning with a mindset of flexibility, with an eye on contingencies and creating co-benefits that can guide meaningful action, in spite of the uncertainty ahead,” Buchanan said.

WSP’s Climate, Resilience and Sustainability team works with the public and private sector to infuse climate change considerations into everyday operations and business strategy, which helps organizations better manage risks and increase resilience in the communities around them.

The team not only assesses exposure to climate risks, but also the potential downstream consequences on assets, enterprises, and employees to identify meaningful resilience measures and adaptation strategies.

“One strength of this team is that we can leverage the entire might of WSP’s engineering and environment expertise and innovation in markets like transportation, water, buildings and energy,” Kemball-Cook said. “That technical knowledge really helps design adaptation strategies and resilience measures that fit client needs and leverage the best available science and engineering.”

With experts in climate science, adaptation, regulation, policy and data, the team provides an interdisciplinary perspective to clients. The team works collaboratively with clients and other partners to co-create tailored solutions aligned with equity and climate justice considerations.

“We pride ourselves on the co-production of knowledge,” Buchanan said. “We work with the client and meet them where they are to help them think through how they can manage these risks — not just on paper, but in a meaningful way to benefit their organization, the people that work for them, and the communities they live in.”