Driving into the Future

For anyone working in zero-emissions transit lately, it’s been tough keeping a foot on the proverbial pedal.

It is true some agencies are rethinking their plans and timelines due to a variety of challenges, but the transition does continue and there are signs that smoother roads are ahead of us.

While we may be momentarily shifting to a lower gear here at home, zero-emissions transit continues to advance globally. In Europe, more than half of new urban bus registrations in 2025 were battery-electric models. In China, widely cited estimates suggest that roughly three‑quarters of new urban buses are now electric. Several major cities in South America are demonstrating that zero-emission fleets can operate reliably at scale. Battery electric has essentially become the default propulsion in much of the world. 

This global experience shows that zero-emissions technology does work, but underscores that success depends on how and where it is deployed. While the U.S. is not currently in a growth phase, there are signs that we are still heading in that direction.

It’s important to be clear‑eyed about the challenges agencies have encountered in the U.S. Some buses delivered in just the past two years have faced quality, reliability and range limitations — particularly on demanding routes with high speeds, heavy passenger loads, extreme climates and long daily duty cycles.

U.S. buses tend to be heavier, operate at higher speeds and require larger HVAC systems than many of their global counterparts. These factors increase energy consumption and can strain early‑generation designs.

The good news is that data from the latest vehicle generations suggest meaningful improvements, reinforcing the value of learning from pilots rather than stepping away entirely.

Customization is another major contributor to cost and complexity. U.S. agencies have historically specified vehicles down to the smallest detail, sometimes requesting hundreds of unique features. In one comparison, a U.S. electric bus specification exceeded 375 pages, while a comparable European document was just 17 pages.  

This “one bus must do everything” mindset raises costs and risks lowering reliability. Identifying the most suitable routes for electrification, rather than forcing a single vehicle to meet every possible operating scenario, can enable simpler designs, reduce costs and generate a higher likelihood of success.

Despite speed bumps, there are bright spots.  

Some manufacturers that exited the U.S. market are exploring a return with renewed investment. ENC in California is back in production, while a major Canadian manufacturer appears poised to reenter. Several European battery-electric bus producers are moving forward with plans to deliver models to the U.S. market.   

This growing competition is essential for driving down costs, improving reliability and driving innovation.  

Battery technology continues to improve as well, along with global safety standards. Groups like the American Public Transportation Association, through initiatives such as its Standard Bus Procurement Guidelines, are actively working with agencies, manufacturers and component suppliers to simplify specifications, standardize safety practices and reduce unnecessary customization.   

There are meaningful steps forward that agencies can consider.

Even if large-scale procurements are temporarily out of reach, agencies can take meaningful steps now to position themselves for success:  

1. Optimize existing pilot fleets: Use this period to gather performance data, refine operating procedures, test charging strategies, improve maintenance workflows and build institutional knowledge with the new technology. Now is the time to push the limits and see just how much you can do. 
2. Stay ready for the next funding window: Maintain fleet transition plans, complete facility assessments and understand evolving grant criteria, so agencies are positioned to move quickly when opportunities emerge.  
3. Don’t abandon lower-emission options: Hybrid, propane and CNG buses still deliver meaningful emissions reductions today. As I’ve said many times: A reliable clean bus in service is better than an electric bus sidelined in the yard.   
4. Minimize customization: Embracing more standardized vehicle designs can reduce costs, shorten delivery times and improve parts availability. These lessons have already been demonstrated globally.  
5. Coordinate early with utilities: Power availability is increasingly competitive, particularly with data‑center growth. Early coordination — and even aggregating demand with other infrastructure users — can improve timelines and outcomes.

There are a few places that aren’t slowing down at all. Some U.S. agencies continue pushing ahead, albeit cautiously. With international manufacturers poised to bring competitive, proven products to the U.S. market, plus ongoing improvements in battery technology and safety standards, the next generation of zero-emission buses is already on the horizon. 

So, my message to transit leaders? Hang in there and use this time wisely. The pause we’re experiencing is not permanent. When funding rebounds, technology matures further and competition increases. Agencies that have invested in preparation as well as vehicles will be the ones ready to make the leap. 

The future of zero-emissions transit in the U.S. remains bright. It isn’t disappearing — it’s arriving in a different sequence than many expected. Agencies that use this pause strategically will be ready when momentum returns. 

Indeed, the wheels on the electric-battery bus still go round and round.