map marker United Kingdom | 12 February 2026
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Housing and healthcare are intricately linked. As communities grow, so does the pressure on medical services, especially acute facilities. The Office for National Statistics projects that the UK population will grow by 4.9 million between 2022 and 20321 – a change that will ripple across housing, healthcare and infrastructure planning.

The Government’s NHS 10-Year Plan aims to reshape the future of healthcare through three radical shifts: hospital to community, analogue to digital and sickness to prevention. As part of this transformation, the NHS is aiming to boost productivity by 4% year-on-year and invest £30 billion in the day-to-day maintenance and repair of NHS estates over the next five years2.

With capital budgets under pressure, it’s more important than ever to plan efficiently. Population growth, housing expansion and shifting care models must be factored into every investment decision. In this article, WSP experts Nicola Parrott and Chelsea Parkes unpack why population projections must be embedded in healthcare estate planning, so providers can invest with precision, optimise costs and deliver care where it’s needed most.

Nicola Parrott
Nicola Parrott
Technical Director - Healthcare Advisory
United Kingdom
Contact
Chelsea Parkes
Chelsea Parkes
Principal Consultant – Healthcare Advisory
United Kingdom
Contact

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How housing growth can impact healthcare services

The design, quality, transport infrastructure and scale of new developments can directly influence public health outcomes and service demand. Understanding these connections is essential for planners, developers and healthcare providers working to build resilient, future-ready communities. There are also pockets of significant disparity between forecast local development and realised housing delivery; understanding the likely timescales for delivery is as critical as the accumulated impact of the development itself.

For example, cold, damp homes with poor insulation and ventilation can result in higher rates of respiratory illness, injuries and mental health problems. Similarly, the challenges relating to the standard of shared accommodation in houses of multiple occupancy are many and significant in terms of health outcomes. The cost can be steep: the NHS is projected to spend £1.4 billion each year treating conditions linked to poor housing, with inadequate insulation topping the list. This emphasises the significant impact housing can have on healthcare outcomes and needs.

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Why hospitals need to consider housing growth in strategic planning

Shifting populations and housing are placing increasing pressure on hospital infrastructure, influencing everything from bed capacity, family health services, mental health teams and wider capital investment and workforce planning. Below we delve into some of the key impacts.

  • Hospital bed shortages: As of Q4 2024, the average daily number of beds available overnight per 1,000 people was 2.31 in England4 5 – reflecting a decline from 20216. While £1.5 billion has been earmarked for hospital bed expansion in 2025/26, the effectiveness of this investment will depend on timely implementation, workforce availability, integration with community care strategies and the total number of additional beds delivered.

  • Financial constraints: Despite additional funding aimed at improving planning flexibility, NHS organisations are required to reduce their cost base by 1% to offset rising demand and inflation – placing further pressure on operational budgets and long-term investment capacity.

  • Workforce deficits: In July 2025, approximately 7,700 secondary care medical roles remained unfilled, representing 4.8% of all medical positions7. In primary care, the number of fully qualified full-time GPs employed in June 2025 was 1,094 fewer than in September 2015, despite a 17% increase in patient numbers over the same period8. This highlights a widening gap between service capacity and population needs.

How to plan for housing growth

As housing developments increase, healthcare infrastructure must keep pace. Our team has developed a dynamic costing model that can help NHS Trusts better forecast the capital impact of residential growth, ensuring investment decisions reflect real-world demand.

We’ve already applied this model for Mid and South Essex NHS Foundation Trust, distilling research and insights into a detailed report to enhance planning decisions. This covered:

  • Baseline hospital profiles and key age adjusted activity projections to inform local and regional long-term planning.
  • Hospital level residential growth projections and scenarios to manage additional demand.
  • Core costed additional forecast capacity needs to support LA discussions.
  • Mapped growth for each service.
  • Recommendations to improve patient flows, transform models of care through left shift and digital innovation.

How our dynamic costing model works

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This model can help Trusts shift from reactive to proactive planning, supporting the ambitions of the 10-Year Health Plan. This means Trusts can accurately cost for local needs, improving how assets are managed and maintained to support healthy people and communities.

References

  1. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/articles/ukpopulationprojectionexplorer/2025-01-28
  2. https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/2025-26-priorities-and-operational-planning-guidance/
  3. https://bregroup.com/documents/d/bre-group/bre_cost-of-poor-housing-tenure-analysis-2023-pdf
  4. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/bulletins/annualmidyearpopulationestimates/mid2023
  5. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/bed-availability-and-occupancy/bed-data-overnight/
  6. https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/pressures/nhs-hospital-beds-data-analysis
  7. https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/workforce/medical-staffing-in-the-nhs
  8. https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/nhs-delivery-and-workforce/workforce/medical-staffing-in-the-nhs

Authors

Nicola Parrott
Nicola Parrott
Technical Director - Healthcare Advisory
United Kingdom
Chelsea Parkes
Chelsea Parkes
Principal Consultant – Healthcare Advisory
United Kingdom
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