Estimating Climate Risks and Adaptation Costs

In support of the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC’s) anticipated fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4), we are leading two ‘deep dive’ projects to estimate the costs of climate risks and adaptation options across several sectors, including farming.

The first project tackles the potential risks to farming from water scarcity, while the second confronts risks from various temperature and rainfall effects, such as soil waterlogging and heat stress.

Projections of climate risks, their societal impact and cost, and the cost and effectiveness of adaptation measures for water scarcity.
Projections of climate risks, their societal impact and cost, and the cost and effectiveness of adaptation measures for farmed landscape.

Engaging key stakeholders

The projects bring together a range of stakeholders, including policy makers, regulators, researchers, trade bodies, and NGOs. Efforts are made to ensure representation from across the four home nations of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Engagement with stakeholders reveals the extent and diversity of current farming initiatives aimed at understanding current and future climate risks and developing evidence-based resilience and adaptation solutions.

Initial project scope

The initial requirement was to deliver a rapid review of existing work and analysis in this space. This included summarising existing models, data, and information that outline the costs of climate impacts on farmed landscapes and possible adaptation actions. The findings from this review have been used to refocus remaining project tasks.

Responding to challenges and delivering results

Several challenges have emerged, including uncertainty in climate change impact and predicting extreme rainfall events. To address these challenges, the team acknowledges uncertainties openly, logs assumptions and their impact on results, and uses sensitivity analysis to present findings within ranges of uncertainty and highlight the most confident options.

The adaptive pathways identified by the deep dive projects will contribute to the CCC’s “Well Adapted UK” report, which will accompany CCRA4. This report will draw on an evidence base that includes effective systemic adaptation scenarios, their costs, benefits, and investment needs. It aims to inform policy recommendations for senior government decision-makers ahead of the next round of national adaptation programmes.

Further insights

For a deeper dive into the challenges and opportunities of climate resilience, explore our conversation with David Tompkins, Associate Director at WSP. His bold perspectives on sustainability, adaptation strategies, and the shifting landscape of environmental policy offer powerful context for the work underway in farming and beyond. Read the full interview here.

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Estimating climate risks and adaptation costs for farming