Report author, WSP Fellow Kali Mercier was joined on a panel by Minister of Infrastructure Hon Chris Bishop and Labour Spokesperson for Housing, Infrastructure and Public Investment Kieran McAnulty.
After opening remarks by WSP managing director Ian Blair, Kali outlined the scale of the demographic challenge the country is facing across housing, aged care, and health infrastructure. Currently, fewer than one in five New Zealanders are over 65. In 2078, that number is projected to be one in three.
Infrastructure is set to feel the strain. In healthcare, for example, sixty-three percent of all public health services will be used by people aged over 65 by 2051. By 2040, only half of people aged 65+ will own their own homes - down from eighty-two percent in 2001. Elsewhere, there could be a shortage of almost twelve-thousand aged care beds by 2032.
The report - called Age-proofing Aotearoa: Rethinking our infrastructure for an ageing population - recommends that policy-makers plan for population change, establish cross-party and cross-agency leadership on ageing and infrastructure.
Panel moderator Katie Bradford from the Infrastructure Commission began a Q&A session by asking how much thought the major parties have put into age-proofing New Zealand.
Hon Bishop said the Government has mostly been thinking about the issue in the context of housing, with the past eighteen months seeing "a more deliberate evidence-based approach to where and how we invest". He said older people have requirements for housing and acknowledged the importance of 'ageing in place' - where people have the ability to live in their home and community for as long as possible, without having to move into a residential care setting.
Hon McAnulty said “a more joined-up approach" is needed for age-proofing infrastructure, especially in the context of housing. "In housing, we see traditional waves of builds and, at best, plateaus in the number of houses. If we want to get to the number of social houses that are needed, we'll need a sustained period of building over successive governments."
The Ministers both said that a mature national conversation is essential to address the challenges of infrastructure, aging, and affordability. Hon McAnulty emphasised that planning isn't just for older generations - it's about futureproofing for children too. He said the work of the Infrastructure Commission is pivotal in shaping this work. Hon Bishop highlighted superannuation as a major fiscal burden. He said he hoped Parliament could agree on the need to make it more affordable.
Hon McAnulty pointed out that many infrastructure responsibilities fall on local councils, which are constrained by outdated rating systems. He warned that upcoming rate caps could worsen the situation. Hon Bishop acknowledged the issues and said there are multiple ways to design rate caps. He mentioned reforms in development contributions and pricing signals to guide growth, as well as upcoming changes via the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Act.
With fewer taxpayers supporting growing public needs, Katie asked how New Zealand can sustainably fund infrastructure and social services. Hon Bishop responded by saying growth and productivity are the ultimate solutions. Fixing the housing crisis is central, he said, as it would boost productivity and create a self-reinforcing cycle of economic growth. Hon McAnulty agreed on the importance of solving the housing crisis but said the important question is "how to get there." He also advocated for structural reform, exploring alternative procurement models, ringfencing state assets and reinvesting the dividends for sustainable infrastructure growth.
In response to a question about using population data to understand and plan for the country's infrastructure needs, Hon Bishop said that accurate data is foundational to all decision-making. He noted that New Zealand tends to underestimate population growth, which can distort planning. Hon McAnulty agreed that projections have been off but pointed to the census as a vital tool for identifying trends.
Read the new report here.
