It's futile to say, 'Let's plan for thirty years,' without knowing how many people we're planning for. Without a clear understanding of population targets, it will be challenging to secure funding and build future-ready infrastructure. 

Having a long-term population strategy will help us plan, build, and fund infrastructure on a scale that meets the needs of the population thirty or more years after the infrastructure is completed.

In Aotearoa, large-scale infrastructure projects typically take about 17 years from idea to completion. But, sadly, as part of our current business case and investment assessment processes, we use population forecasts that have historically proven to be significantly inadequate, which means on some projects we only have a five-year horizon of capacity after completion. 

A recent report from Principal Economics highlights the costs of delay in infrastructure decisions. Our current approach leads to high costs, low capacity, and minimal growth benefits. It's high time to move away from this inefficient strategy and invest in infrastructure that provides lasting benefits for the future.

One potential solution, which addresses both funding and planning challenges, is to remove the issue from our 3-year political cycle, such as in overseas jurisdictions. This could be achieved by having the relevant Crown agency developing a long-term population strategy, which could consider long-term population trends, funding and financing implications, and infrastructure pipelines.

By taking these matters out of the political realm, we can be more effective and strategic in achieving the outcomes we want for our country. 

It’s important to acknowledge that infrastructure costs will never be as cheap as they are today. Debt financing for capital expenditure on infrastructure is a viable approach that should be embraced. It's not necessary to fund infrastructure solely through direct taxation on the current population, especially when it will serve multiple generations.

Instead, policymakers can consider options like loans, infrastructure bonds, Public-Private Partnerships, and other mechanisms that attract upfront capital for big infrastructure projects. Doing so means the debt burden can be spread over time. It’s a sensible way of investing in intergenerational infrastructure without excessively burdening the current population.

In the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, Aotearoa excelled at infrastructure development. We constructed a sizeable portion of infrastructure that is now showing signs of strain due to its age — including hydro schemes, roads, urban rail networks, public transport systems, water infrastructure, and more.

Think of the industrial projects of the Think Big era. How many of those do we regret now? None, I'd hazard. In fact, we need more of them to service our growing population.

During that era, we implemented a smart approach by building entire suburbs with infrastructure already in place, or at the very least planned and protected, before constructing houses. However, today's practice often involves building houses first and then scrambling to address infrastructure needs afterward, resulting in exorbitant costs and complexity. 

While the infrastructure back then was funded through borrowing, rapid population growth allowed for quick repayment. With a long-term population strategy, the same will be true looking forward. 

Te Ao Māori principles consider a seven-generation planning time horizon. While we may not need to plan that far ahead, why not consider a 50 to 100-year horizon for infrastructure planning? 

Cultivating a shared vision for our future infrastructure direction means deliberating on crucial questions, such as immigration strategy. 

A serious national conversation is needed so informed decisions can be made about the path we choose to follow. That way, the strong reasons we have for building intergenerational infrastructure will translate into even stronger actions.