Lower road toll likely influenced by economy and enforcement

In 2022, 371 people lost their lives on our roads. Fast forward to 2023 and the number was 342. In 2024, it was 292. For 2025, the provisional number is 273.

It’s encouraging to see the number track downwards, but we know from history this is no guarantee of future lower road tolls.

Any number is a tragedy affecting untold individuals, families, and communities. That’s why it’s important to understand what’s influencing the numbers and how they can be kept as low as possible.

Road safety is not a simple fix and is driven by many factors. One of the more interesting pieces of research in recent years is an OECD research report called ‘Why Does Road Safety Improve When Economic Times Get Hard?’.

The report looks at the relationship between road safety and key economic indicators such as employment rates and the level of economic activity. While it’s a global study, the report’s findings support analysis done by the NZ Transport Agency.

That analysis was based on seasonally adjusted employment, petrol price, and population aged 15 to 24 years. While including other variables such as infrastructure and enforcement activities at current levels, the resulting model predicted some of the downturn we are currently seeing.

The OECD finds that economic downturns are associated with less growth in traffic and potentially a decline in traffic volumes. They’re also associated with a reduction in the exposure of high-risk groups in traffic, especially young people. Plus, constrained household budgets mean less drinking (and driving), lower speeds for fuel economy, and fewer holiday trips.

Of course, economic hardship is not a road‑safety solution – but it does help explain recent trends.

The OECD’s research shows the economy changes how much and who is driving - not how safe roads are. If, as their research suggests, our lower road toll is partly being driven by economic factors, consecutive years of lower road tolls could just as easily be eroded as ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery emerge.

While all this helps define the trend, other key modifiers include the level of infrastructure investment and factors such as the level of enforcement activity.

Over the last few years, Police tickets for speed offences have jumped from 456,000 in 2018 to 922,000 in 2025. Over a similar period, Police breath screening tests rose from just over 1 million tests in the 2018/19 financial year to just over 4 million tests in 2024/25.

International research literature shows that increased enforcement activity will improve road safety but so too can ailing economies. And both may have contributed to 2025’s reduction in traffic fatalities.

The big picture of getting the road toll as low as possible for as long as possible involves a mix of short-, medium-, and long-term initiatives.

In the short term, enforcement has an immediate impact. Medium term, road engineering and policy treatments such as barrier programmes, roadside hazard and speed management are the most effective. These give the best ‘bang for buck’ in road safety.

New, safer, roads help too, with new bypasses resulting in a 37 percent reduction in death and serious injuries. However, for practical and public spending reasons, we can’t build ourselves out of a high road toll. A large proportion of travel is still done on 2-Star roads. These are twice as dangerous as 3-Star roads, which, themselves, are twice as dangerous as 4-Star roads.

Ultimately, long term change requires behavioural and generational shifts. Think about the twenty-four years it took for seatbelts - front and rear - to be compulsorily worn in New Zealand cars.

A truly safer road system isn’t one where deaths fall only when times are tough. It’s one that keeps people safe when the economy grows, travel increases, and enforcement ebbs and flows. That’s the measure of success we should be aiming for - and this will require deliberate, long‑term, safe system choices.