Winding back how far we drive: Aotearoa New Zealand’s bumpy road ahead

The ERP includes several emission reduction targets and specific policies for sectors like transport. To achieve these transport sector emissions targets, the ERP proposes reducing car dependence, promoting walking, cycling, and public transport, adopting low-emission vehicles, and decarbonising heavy transport and freight.

The ERP is supported by the Decarbonising Transport Action Plan (DTAP) released by Te Manatū Waka Ministry of Transport in December 2022. Waka Kotahi plays a crucial role in meeting the ERP's ambitious emission reduction goals, facilitated by the DTAP.

One of the main ERP targets is to reduce light VKT by 20 percent by 2035. Getting there poses a significant challenge. We know from twenty years of national light VKT per capita data that Kiwis drive around 8,700 kilometres annually. Achieving the 20 percent reduction in VKT goes against decades of established driving patterns.

To meet the Government’s target, our national average per capita light vehicle travel would need to decrease to below 7,000 kilometres, a figure well under that seen in the past 20 years.

Simply put, imagine not driving at all for ten weeks of every year. That’s the scale of reduction required by the ERP. And we only have twelve years to achieve it. Can you picture making such momentous change to your current driving habits?

In Aotearoa, 65 percent of light VKT are from Tier 1 areas. Tier 1 areas cover the surrounds of our five main cities – Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington, and Christchurch – and are defined by collectives of councils, described as Tier 1 councils. These areas include a city’s urban areas, their urban sprawl, satellite towns, and hinterlands. Immediately achieving the Government's VKT reduction target in Tier 1 areas alone is unlikely due to their sheer size, urban form, the convenience of (and limited alternatives to) driving.

Household Travel Survey (HTS) data shows that over half of all Tier 1 journeys are shorter than 6 kilometres. If all these were eliminated, a 20 percent VKT reduction in Tier 1 areas wouldn’t be met.

One in five driven journeys are under 2 kilometres, which can be walked in around half an hour, but they make up only 3 percent of driven kilometres. Reducing driven journeys under 2 kilometres won’t make much of a dent in reducing light VKT, although it plays a critical role in establishing the behaviour change required to break car dependency.

The data paints a clear picture. Longer journeys account for a sizeable proportion of VKT. We know from HTS data that the 2.5 percent of Tier 1 journeys exceeding 50 kilometres contribute a whopping 22 percent of VKT. And the almost 75 percent of Tier 1 journeys covering distances under 10 kilometres account for only a quarter of VKT.

HTS data shows seven journey purposes. Some are more amenable to alternative modes of transport than others. Commuting to work, for some, is highly possible for mode shift. Other purposes that are easier to shift might be shopping, social welfare, personal business, services, social visit, entertainment, or recreation. Conversely, driving for purposes such as work for employer's business will be more difficult to shift to alternative modes.

A selection of driven journeys in Tier 1 areas, that we believed might be simpler to switch to a different form of transportation, were examined. To create this subset, we filtered journeys that were driven in a main urban area and were shorter than 15 kilometres for the purpose of either:

• commuting, socialising
• entertainment / recreation
• shopping / personal business.

These journeys make up only 25 percent of light VKT in Tier 1 areas. This subset simply isn’t substantial enough to reach the desired reduction in the distance travelled by vehicles.

It's important to recognise that mode shift isn't a cure-all. The potential for mode shift in many Tier 1 areas is constrained by journey factors such as distance and purpose, the availability and suitability of alternative modes of transport, and personal travel preferences.

To achieve the needed reduction in light VKT, longer journeys will have to be targeted. To address the challenges related to Aotearoa's transport emissions, our travel patterns need to change.

We need to get light VKT on a downward trajectory, and fast, to meet our emissions target. This will be no mean feat. It will require system-wide change in the way we travel, and our need to travel. As well as reducing VKT, the change will bring benefits to people’s health, through fitness and air quality, and deliver safety benefits through the way we travel.

There must be a concerted effort to use urban planning and densification to shorten journey lengths, to promote and enable alternative modes, and to discourage driving.

We can adopt urban master planning strategies that encourage and enable shorter, more localised, journeys. Creating walkable neighbourhoods, improving active travel provision, and prioritising public transport over general traffic can achieve this. Urban planning focused on creating 20-minute cities, where people can access all necessary services within a 20-minute walk or bike ride, have been adopted overseas.

Public transport is more efficient at moving people, helps lower road congestion, and reduces emissions – it's a more sustainable way of traveling.

Introducing driving disincentives, such as congestion charging and parking constraints to reduce demand for driving, would incentivise people to consider whether their journey is worth completing and encourage them to consider alternatives.

Measures like these will not only reduce light VKT; they have significant positive impacts on the urban environment and public health. Lowering emissions by driving less in our cities will improve air quality, reduce noise, offer safer modes, and get the country closer to achieving its climate targets. Promoting active modes of travel, like walking and cycling, lead to better physical health, wellbeing, and social interaction, which are much harder to achieve when confined behind the wheel.

There's no doubt that the road to reducing our car dependency is set to be bumpy, but the benefit to people, communities, and the planet means that it's more important than ever that the nation works together to get light VKT on the downward track now.