New report maps growing water risk in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

Water demand in Australia's southern Murray-Darling Basin is continuing to rise, and in dry and very dry years, demand is likely to exceed available supply.

Australia | Monday, 27 April 2026

A new independent report prepared by WSP for the Victorian Government provides an updated, basin-wide picture of future water availability and horticultural demand, helping governments, irrigators and water market participants understand where pressure points are emerging and why.

What the report shows

The Water supply and demand in the southern basin: 2025 update refreshes earlier modelling with improved data and stronger cross-jurisdictional input, building confidence in the findings.

Key findings include:

Demand continues to grow, driven largely by perennial horticulture expansion.
Supply constraints remain material, particularly under moderately dry and extreme dry climate conditions.
Risk is concentrated in the lower Murray, where competition for water is intensifying.
Market and policy settings matter, with implications for water trading, investment decisions, and long-term planning.

Why this matters now

With climate variability increasing and water recovery programs reshaping basin dynamics, having a defensible, up-to-date view of supply–demand balance is critical. This update provides a shared evidence base to support irrigation and business planning, water market decision-making, and government policy development and risk management.

This update improves confidence in where water demand is heading and how it compares with likely supply under different climate conditions. The results reinforce that competition for water remains a real risk, particularly in drier years, and that informed planning is essential.

Benjamin Williams Associate Director - Water Management & Markets, WSP

Benjamin Williams Associate Director - Water Management & Markets, WSP